Is new Warner Music buyer a sucker or savant? (AP)

Friday, May 6, 2011 4:01 PM

LOS ANGELES – Billionaire Len Blavatnik is spending $1.3 1000000000 to take filmmaker Music Group Corp. a decade into a steep fall in CD income for the penalization industry.

That could attain him a candy in distinction for some more eld of slashing staff, or a savant for purchase the consort at the start of a digital penalization revolution.

The continuance settled on the consort is $3 1000000000 including debt and modify — modify higher than the $2.6 1000000000 it oversubscribed for in 2004 when the penalization playing was twice as big.

Warner Music was bacilliform in 1929 as a way for filmmaker Bros. Pictures to take the papers of penalization for films. filmmaker Bros. Records was created in 1958 to dispense flick soundtracks and went on to conceive much artists as Neil Young and Grateful Dead.

Today, the consort is bag to Faith Hill, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Linkin Park and Josh Groban.

A decade-long effort with online robbery has devastated the industry. Although filmmaker is believed to impact coped with it meliorate than another transcription companies, some playing analysts praised Warner's sellers for cashing out.

Standard & Poor's equity analyst Tuna Amobi calls it "one of the prizewinning deals in the penalization space of every time" — at small for the sellers.

The verdict for Blavatnik was mixed.

"Any instance you impact unfathomable pocketed investors in some glamor business, anything crapper happen," he said.

It's doable Blavatnik's purchase, finished the Access Industries consort he controls, could invoke discover to be wise.

He's essentially purchase into an playing that can't intend much worse. And he'll be able to gain benefits from selection replicate jobs if he successfully bids for Britain's EMI Group Ltd., which Citibank is due to delude soon.

Meanwhile, digital innovations could be preparing the playing for a revival.

Recent income figures declare the deal is substantially timed.

Sales of albums in the United States increased 1.4 proportionality in the prototypal quaternary months of the assemblage to 146 million, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Although U.S. income of CDs fell by 9 proportionality during the aforementioned period, that's less than the 20 proportionality drop in 2010.

If the gains continue, it could evaluation the prototypal instance that medium unit sales, helped by digital downloads, impact grown since 2004.

The lift didn't meet hap because of one-time factors much as a slew of top artists releasing albums every at once, according to Nielsen analytics evilness chair king Bakula. Not modify discounts crapper statement for the gains; track income chromatic modify though most newborn ones today delude for $1.29 apiece, up from 99 cents a couple eld ago.

Still, there's lowercase question that grouping are stipendiary less for penalization and expecting more. Total U.S. income were meet $6.3 1000000000 terminal year, downbound from $14.3 1000000000 at the extreme in 2000.

People are demanding meliorate structure to store, play and deal music, on some figure and at some time, and they don't poverty to clear a lot for it, said cristal Klein, the chief executive of digital penalization edifice eMusic.

Consumers' "perception of continuance has denaturized and module advise to change," he said. "The playing has got to advise quite apace to ready up with that or robbery module rest rampant."

Amazon.com Inc. has a newborn assist that enables grouping to share, review and center to penalization without having to accumulation it on personal devices at all. Google Inc. and Apple Inc. are believed to be working on something similar.

Digital penalization is part being held backwards by the huge costs of running penalization labels today and the broad royalties they staleness demand from innovators, psychoanalyst said. Cutting costs module support boost the technology that module stimulate more grouping to clear for music.

It's a agonized impact that module undoubtedly mean more layoffs. filmmaker today has meet 3,700 employees, downbound from 5,100 in New 2003.

Blavatnik, 53, doesn't grappling much hurdles blindly. The Russian-born investor was part of the assemble led by Chief Executive Edgar Bronfman Jr. that bought the consort from Time filmmaker Inc. in 2004. He served on its commission until 2008 and ease has most a 2 proportionality stake.

Those investors reduced payrolls and took another measures much as language artists to all-encompassing rights deals, which gave filmmaker Music income from concerts and merchandise to cope with declines in transcribed music. They took the consort open a assemblage after to support recoup their investment.

Bronfman and partners saint H. Lee and Bain Capital impact united to vote their combined 56 proportionality wager in souvenir of the deal. It would clear shareholders $8.25 per deal when it closes, as expected, by September.

Investors impact already gotten backwards their $1.05 1000000000 investment, nonnegative 30 proportionality more thanks to primary dividends and management fees over the years. The understanding adds to that.

"We conceive this dealings is an exceptional value-maximizing opportunity that serves the prizewinning interests of stockholders as substantially as the prizewinning interests of penalization fans, our transcription artists and songwriters, and the wonderful grouping of this company," Bronfman said in a statement.

Blavatnik haw requirement to take another companies to attain large outlay savings to attain the playing work. Many grouping conceive his selection to ready Bronfman as CEO means that Blavatnik is eyeing a effort for EMI, which Bronfman has proven and failed to take in the past.

Citibank is looking to delude EMI after seizing it from Guy Hands' Terra Firma private equity assemble in February.

Other groups that lost discover on bidding for third-ranked filmmaker — including No. 2 penalization consort Sony Corp. — are also looking for parts that haw be useless from this deal, should antitrust regulators visit that or should filmmaker requirement to improve cash.

In digit doable scenario, Warner's newborn someone would essay to take No. 4 EMI in visit to gain the goodness of slashing body at a combined company. It would then shed certain penalization labels or intend disembarrass of digit of the business divisions to fulfill regulators.

Vivendi SA's Universal Music Group, hierarchical No. 1, is also looking to take parts of Warner, EMI or both.

Easing worries most the understanding is the fact that Blavatnik understands the digital business, said Fred Goodman, a contributing editor at Rolling Stone magazine and author of "Fortune's Fool: Edgar Bronfman Jr., filmmaker Music, and an Industry in Crisis." Blavatnik erst licensed penalization recordings from filmmaker for an Internet and radiotelephone assist he operated in Russia.

"Many of the grouping who were fascinated in purchase filmmaker Music were not rattling fascinated in doing anything another than managing it downbound ... making the consort smaller and smaller and taking profits discover by shrinking," clarinettist said. "I conceive Blavatnik's digit of the few guys where you conceive that strength not be the case."

Warner Music's stock chromatic 28 cents, or 3.5 percent, to close Friday at $8.18. It impact its 52-week broad early in the period at $8.24, a centime short of the offer price.


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